Harga Emas Kukuh - Beri Kesan Pada US GDP

Gold Price Firm, 2011 GDP to Disappoint?

GOLD PRICE NEWS – The gold price climbed $4.85 to $1,413.17 Sunday evening as the price of gold continued to march higher.  The gold price added $5.76 to $1,408.32 on Friday to post its fourth consecutive weekly advance.  The rebound in the gold price has taken the yellow metal to within 1% of its $1,432.50 all-time record high from December 7, 2010.

While the gold price has rallied in recent weeks, it has been overshadowed by the impact of social unrest in Africa and the Middle East on the price of oil.  Commenting on the this and other recent market developments was David Rosenberg, Chief Economist & Strategist at Gluskin Sheff.  Rosenberg described the turmoil as a “global recessionary shock” in a Bloomberg interview. 

If oil prices continue to remain elevated, Rosenberg noted that they will “crimp economic growth” because rather than rising as a function of higher demand, black gold is climbing due to supply shocks.  He noted that a $10 move in the price of oil cuts 25-50 basis points off U.S. GDP growth, and contended that “I don’t know how we get 3.5-4.0% GDP growth” this year.

In a note to clients, Rosenberg went on to say that ”The view that the economy will escape relatively unscathed is another pie-in-the-sky view from Wall Street research houses that we heard not just in 2007 but through the first nine months of 2008 when the recession was in full flight. If economic research houses were already assuming say $80 oil for the year, and now we are heading to $100, then right there that subtracts one percentage point off real GDP growth.”

Ulasan : Begitu pentingnya pengaruh nilai emas di dalam menentukan kadar pengukuhan ekonomi di sesebuah negara dapat dilihat pada artikel ini. Seperti yang selalu diperkatakan nilai emas berkadar songsang dengan situasi ekonomi dunia. Dengan kata mudah, makin teruk ekonomi, harga emas semakin meningkat. Sedang setengah pihak duduk termenung kerana kegawatan ekonomi, penyimpan emas duduk tersenyum kerana harga emas semakin naik.

Harga Perak Naik Mendadak

Harga Perak naik secara mendadak , tertinggi sejak 31 tahun lalu dan 2 kali ganda lebih tinggi dari harga tahun lepas. Harga perak ketika ini ialah USD 33.94 seounce. Manakala harga perak di Malaysia adalah seperti berikut :-

Kenaikan ini menurut penganalisis disebabkan ketegangan di negara-negara Afrika Utara dan Asia Tengah. Bagi mereka yang beli perak pada bulan Januari lalu sekitar harga RM 1800 sudah boleh jana keuntungan dalam masa tidak sampai satu bulan walaupun 'spread' Public Gold agak tinggi iaitu 15%. Harga 'We Buy' sekarang ialah RM 1892.

Perak sentiasa dianggap sebagai 'emas orang kurang mampu' kerana harganya yang jauh lebih rendah daripada emas tetapi amat berharga. Jika kita analisa trend kenaikan harga perak, sebenarnya peratus kenaikan tahunan harga perak adalah jauh lebih tinggi dari emas. Tidak disangsikan lagi kebenaran Hadith Nabi Muhammad SAW yang menyuruh kita menyimpan dinar dan dirham. Pejam mata, tutup telinga, teruslah menyimpan emas dan perak dengan penuh keyakinan...

Emas naik kini - RM 3122 / 20g

Alhamdulillah emas naik semula selepas sekian lama berada di bawah paras RM 3100. Beruntung kawan saya yang beli pada bulan Januari lalu pada harga RM 2982 kerana harga 'We Buy' sekarang pun sudah hampir sama dengan harga beliau beli pada waktu itu. Atau dengan kata laian, belum sampai sebulan sudah hampir 'balik modal'.

Kenaikan kali ini dikatakan tertinggi sejak 4 minggu lalu dan dikaitkan dengan kebimbangan tentang situasi tegang di Asia Tengah. Tetapi bagi yang nak membeli jangan risau. Harga ini masih murah lagi berbanding harga tertinggi pada bulan Disember 2010 lalu iaitu sekitar RM 3230.

Bila Inflasi, Harga Emas Naik

Memang banyak kelebihan menyimpan emas ni. Bila seluruh dunia mencatatkan inflasi atau baru menjangka akan berlaku inflasi, harga emas pun naik. Untunglah penyimpan emas. Sedang pada hakikatnya, jika inflasi semua orang akan mengalami kerugian kerana harga barangan meningkat sedangkan gaji meningkat setahun sekali saja, tetapi bagi penyimpan emas, mereka boleh tersenyum.

 

Gold Advances for a Fourth Day as Inflation Fuels Hedge Demand

Gold advanced for a fourth day on speculation that rising consumer prices will boost investor demand for the metal as a hedge against inflation.

Immediate-delivery bullion rose 0.2 percent to $1,377.47 an ounce at 10:52 a.m. in Singapore. The metal climbed to $1,382.17 an ounce yesterday, the highest price since Jan. 13. Futures for April delivery were also up 0.2 percent.
“Gold retains strength to move higher against the backdrop of rising inflation globally,” said Bae Jung Seok, senior trader with Eugene Investment & Futures Co. in Seoul.

Singapore raised its inflation forecast for 2011 today after the economy expanded at a record pace last year. Wholesale prices rose for a seventh straight month in the U.S. and gained 8.2 percent last month in India. The Bank of England forecast inflation peaking at 4.4 percent this year, more than twice as high as its target.

The United Nations Food & Agriculture Organization’s World Food Price Index rose to a record in January. Food prices have surged to “dangerous levels,” pushing 44 million people into extreme poverty since June, the World Bank said this week.

Weakness in the dollar, which typically moves inversely to gold, also provided some support to the metal.

The dollar fell to a one week low against the euro before reports forecast to show European consumer confidence rose and an index of U.S. leading indicators gained, adding to signs the global recovery is strengthening.

‘Downside Risk’

Gold has weakened 3.8 percent since touching a record $1,431.25 an ounce on Dec. 7 as investors turned to high- yielding assets including equities as the global economy improved.

“A surprise uptick in inflation could be the impetus for gold prices to head higher,” said Ong Yi Ling, Singapore-based analyst with Phillip Futures Pte Ltd. “However, we think that current inflationary pressures in the U.S. remain muted. With gold prices at multi-week highs, there may be downside risks if investors take profits.”

Assets in gold-backed exchange traded products fell 0.6 metric tons to 2,016.41 tons yesterday, the lowest level since June 7, data compiled by Bloomberg from 10 providers show. Holdings reached a record 2,114.6 tons in December.

“Physical demand is absent as buyers have been driven away by the higher prices,” Marc Ground, commodity analyst with Standard Bank, wrote in a note. “This opens up a downside risk for gold and silver. The upward momentum is waning.”

Karen Jones, technical analyst with Commerzbank AG, said in a note to clients, that gold won’t attempt to rise to its record price in the months to come and will trade between $1,425 and $1,300 in the weeks ahead.
Platinum for immediate delivery increased 0.4 percent to $1,837.25 an ounce and spot palladium added 0.6 percent to $846.50 an ounce, rising to near a decade-high. Silver was little changed at $30.6838 an ounce.
To contact the reporter on this story: Kyoungwha Kim in Singapore at kkim19@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Poole at jpoole4@bloomberg.net

Apa Dia Fiat Money ?

Fiat Money tidak ada kena mengena dengan kereta Fiat. Sebelum kita cerita lebih lanjut, mari kita tengok definisi seperti dinyatakan dalam website favourite saya 'wikipedia.org' :

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiat_money

Fiat Money

Fiat money is money that has value only because of government regulation or law. The term derives from the Latin fiat, meaning "let it be done", as such money is established by government decree. Where fiat money is used as currency, the term fiat currency is used. Today, most national currencies are fiat currencies, including the US dollar, the euro, and all other reserve currencies, and have been since the Nixon Shock of 1971.

Di sini kita boleh lihat, Fiat Money atau kita boleh panggil duit kertas sebenarnya tidak ada nilai(value). Ia ada nilai hanya disebabkan undang-undang yang ditetapkan oleh sesebuah kerajaan. Jika tiada undang-undang ini, dia tidak lebih dari sehelai kertas yang dicetak. Anak kita pun boleh print wang kertas di printer colour kita dengan lebih cantik dan menarik.

Cuba kita tengok duit RM 50 contohnya, ada disebutkan 'WANG KERTAS INI SAH DIPERLAKUKAN DENGAN NILAI RM 50' dan ditandatangani oleh Gabenor Bank Negara. Inilah yang menyebabkan kertas itu ada nilai sebanyak RM 50. Bukan kerana harga dakwat pencetaknya atau pun harga kertasnya bernilai RM 50.

Tidak seperti syiling atau jongkong emas. Ia tidak memerlukan undang-undang untuk menentukan nilainya. Ia tidak perlu tandatangan mana-mana governor. Ia tidak perlu sebenarnya cetakan-cetakan atau security code yang canggih-canggih untuk menentukan nilainya. Ia ada nilai dengan sendirinya kerana keadaan fizikalnya. Contohnya pada waktu ini nilai emas 1 ounce ialah USD 1363. Itulah kelebihan emas.

Kerana itu juga sistem matawang dulu-dulu semuanya disandarkan kepada rezab emas yang dimiliki oleh sesebuah negara hinggalah pada tahun 1971 disebabkan krisis kewangan yang teruk di Amerika oleh kerana Perang Vietnam, Presiden Amerika ketika itu Richard Nixon, telah mengubah sistem berkenaan di mana duit Amerika tidak lagi berdasarkan rezab emas yang dimiliki oleh mereka, malah diapungkan. Yang lebih malang, kebanyakan negara lain menyandarkan matawang dan hampir kesemua rezab negara mereka pada US Dolar. Inilah yang menyebabkan Amerika bebas mencetak wang mereka sewenang-wenangnya tetapi tidak negara lain.

Panjang lagi ceritanya berkenaan hal ini. Untuk mengetahui lebih lanjut, bolehlah kita melayari website yang saya nyatakan di atas. Tetapi buat masa ini, cukuplah kita memahami, wang kertas sebenarnya pada hakikatnya tidak ada sebarang nilai. Kerana itu juga kebanyakan pelabur berpendapat, pelaburan yang selamat adalah di dalam emas dan juga perak. Hakikat ini telah dinyatakan lama dulu lagi oleh Nabi Muhammad S.A.W. di dalam hadis yang dinyatakan di atas blog saya ni. Yakinlah kita pada hadith berkenaan. Insya Allah ada kejayaan dunia dan akhirat.

Emas Naik Tertiggi Dalam Masa 3 MInggu

Emas melonjak naik sebanyak lebih USD 10, tertinggi dalam masa 3 minggu disebabkan kelemahan US Dollar dan pengumuman kerajaan China menaikkan kadar interest buat kali kedua dalam masa 6 minggu yang menimbulkan kebimbangan terhadap kemungkinan berlakunya inflasi.



Comex Gold Rallies to 3-Week High on Bargain Hunting, Improving Technicals

(Kitco News) - Comex gold futures have rallied sharply Tuesday morning and hit a fresh three-week high of $1,365.90, basis April futures. Bargain hunting buying interest following selling pressure during most of January and a better near-term technical posture of the market are working to boost the yellow metal. April gold last traded up $14.00 an ounce at $1,362.20. Most other commodity markets are under selling pressure Tuesday, in the wake of a Chinese interest rate hike. However, gold is bucking that trend as the bulls are working on extending a two-week-old price uptrend from the late-January low.

Bagaimana Mengetahui Prestasi Emas

Semenjak dua menjak ni harga emas agak statik. Mungkin ramai penyimpan pun hold dulu untuk membeli ataupun menjual. Maklumlah kalau nak jual biar sewaktu harga tinggi tetapi sekarang harga tengah rendah. Manakala yang memang hendak membeli pula tengah tunggu harga jatuh lagi rendah. Jadi boleh dikatakan agak kurang sedikit aktiviti jual-beli emas pada waktu ini.

Mungkin ada yang kata rugi dulu beli waktu harga mahal tetapi sekarang harga murah dan macam tak naik-naik. Mana nak untung ? Tetapi ada satu cara sebenarnya untuk mengetahui prestasi emas harian, bulanan dan tahunan bagi mengetahui sama ada benarkah menyimpan emas ni sesuatu yang menguntungkan.

Cuba kita lihat kat website Kitco.com, terdapat jadual seperti di bawah :

Di sini kita boleh lihat, walaupun seolah-olah harga tidak naik-naik, kenaikan berbanding 1 tahun yang lepas ialah 27.04 %. Mana nak dapat pelaburan sebegini. Mungkin jika kita lihat bulan lepas ia merosot sebanyak 2.02 %, tetapi jika kita berterusan memantau prestasi tahunan, ia mengekalkan prestasi kenaikan positif yang amat memberangsangkan. Seperti kita biasa dengar pakar-pakar emas kata, pelaburan emas ialah pelaburan jangka sederhana dan panjang (1 tahun ke atas).

Oleh itu, teruskanlah menyimpan emas selagi termampu !!!

Harga Emas Naik Kembali

Harga Emas naik kembali ke paras USD 1351 kerana pembelian oleh pelabur disebabkan kebimbangan suasana tegang di Mesir.

P.M. Kitco Metals Roundup: Comex Gold Pops Higher on Short Covering, Safe-Haven Buying; Technicals Improve


(Kitco News) -Comex gold futures prices finished the trading session solidly higher and near the session high Thursday. Short covering, bargain-hunting buying interest and safe-haven investment demand boosted the yellow metal, as the civil unrest in Egypt escalated Thursday. Comex April gold last traded up $19.70 at $1,351.80 an ounce. Spot gold last traded up $16.20 at $1,351.75.


Gold prices quickly pushed higher just before midday Thursday, after trading in a choppy fashion just above or below the unchanged level earlier in the session. The rally in gold coincided with news reports that Egyptian protesters were going after journalists, live video from Egypt was squelched and tanks were patrolling the streets. Reports also said several people were killed Thursday in clashes on the streets. This prompted a safe-haven move into gold, and also prompted short covering and bargain-hunting buying interest. Precious metals traders will continue to keep a close eye on the latest developments coming from Egypt.


The U.S. dollar index also rallied Thursday and also saw a short-covering bounce, following recent selling pressure. A European central bank meeting Thursday saw remarks from banking chief Trichet suggest the EU bank may not move soon to raise interest rates. This was Euro bearish and U.S. dollar bullish. The U.S. dollar index was also boosted by some better U.S. economic data Thursday, upbeat comments from Fed chief Bernanke, and by some safe-haven buying interest in the greenback due to the Egypt unrest.


Traders are awaiting Friday's U.S. jobs report. That report is expected to show non-farm payrolls grew by around 135,000 in January. If the employment report shows more jobs strength than expected, look for the U.S. dollar index to rally and for gold to be pressured. Conversely, a weaker jobs number than expected would likely be gold-market-bullish and U.S. dollar-bearish.


The London P.M. gold fix was $1,328.00 versus the previous P.M. fixing of $1,337.00.

Beli Emas Sekarang ?

Menurut artikel di bawah, harga emas akan naik sehingga USD 1500. Jadi jika ada yang merancang untuk membeli emas, inilah waktu yang paling sesuai kerana harganya sedang murah dan boleh naik bila-bila masa.


Memang mungkin akan berlaku selepas ini turun atau naik harga, tetapi harga sekarang jika dibandingkan dengan kira-kira 5 bulan lalu adalah paling murah. Baru-baru ini seorang rakan saya meminta saya lock emas Public Gold 20g pada harga RM 2972 sebanyak 2 keping. Bagi saya beliau beruntung kerana membeli pada harga serendah itu. Kerana pada bulan 12 lalu harga pernah mencecah RM 3230. jadi beliau telah untung sebanyak kira-kira RM 260 sekeping. Itu sekeping, kalau 10 keping bayangkan.


Untuk saya sendiri, harga terendah pernah saya beli pada bulan November 2010 ialah RM 3095. Sekarang ini kira-kira RM 3005, kurang RM 90 sekeping. Kalau 7 keping RM 630. Tetapi hakikatnya, tiada kerugian di dalam penyimpanan emas dan juga perak. Insya Allah harganya tetap akan naik satu masa nanti. Seperti yang kita selalu dengar daripada pakar-pakar emas, emas ini adalah pelaburan jangka sederhana dan panjang. Bulan jangka pendek.

1500$ Gold Price Is Inevitable Says Precious Metals Brokerage Group Senior Market Analyst (PMBG)

(Vocus/PRWEB) February 03, 2011

Speculators and technicians have been bearish on gold for the last two months, at least the good ones have! "We have been dead right," says PMBG Market Analyst Thomas Rosen. "As gold prices tried to push up a third time out of its congestion area and failed, creating a triple top, with the third top slightly lower than the other two, the gold market presented a nice opportunity to make some short-term profits on the sell side for once, and we over-hedged accordingly!"


It's very simple to understand, the market doesn't move in straight lines, but in patterns of waves. Usually this takes place in a series of three, and gold is on its third "leg" down to the 1310 level that should act as a key Fibonacci pivot level. This will be the area that gold reverses and goes higher. If you have been waiting for your opportunity to buy gold, silver, or any precious metal, especially physical gold coins or gold bullion, this will be the chance to load the boat and prepare for the next wave towards the $1500 level.


On a side note, gold stocks have a tendency to lead gold. They started to decline a month before gold futures broke down from $1430. Looking at their charts you can see three clear "legs" down into support areas or pivot points. They have already started moving higher adding to my long-side conviction. There is still a lot of upside for gold as an investment, and this pullback in gold is very close to being over. The Fibonacci 13 year bull market in gold is fundamentally intact, and we continue to advise buying gold such as gold coins on every dip, as we are currently removing are short hedge.


Precious Metals Brokerage Group http://www.pmbg.net/ (PMBG) provides physical delivery of Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Palladium. Our Retirement Account Department also provides Gold 401k and Gold IRA services. Get your Free Gold Investment Kit or view Live Precious Metals Prices. Call us toll free at (866) 775-3131 to speak with an account executive.

Kenapa Bila USD naik, Emas Turun ?

Jika US Dollar menjadi semakin kukuh, kita memerlukan duit dollar yang kurang untuk membeli sebarang komoditi termasuk emas yang sememangnya diletakkan di dalam USD.


Jika US Dollar menjadi lemah, kita memerlukan lebih duit USD untuk membeli komoditi pada jumlah yang sama.


Ini yang menyebabkan harga emas kelihatan seolah-olah berkadar songsang dengan USD. Jika USD naik, harga emas turun, jika USD makin lemah pula, harga emas akan naik.

Dari Kitco :


When the US Dollar gets stronger, it takes fewer dollars to buy any commodity that is priced in $USD. When the US Dollar gets weaker it takes more dollars to purchase the same commodity.


The price of all US Dollar denominated commodities, like gold, will change to reflect the fact that it will take fewer or more dollars to buy that commodity. So it’s quite possible, in fact it’s almost always the case that a portion of the change in the price of gold is really just a reflection of a change in the value of the US Dollar. Sometimes that portion is insignificant. But often the opposite is true where the entire change in the gold price is simply a mathematical recalculation of an ever-changing US Dollar value.


When the dollar gets strong, gold appears to go down, and vice versa. That accounts for part of the fluctuations that we see in the value of gold.


The other part is an actual increase in the supply or demand for gold. If the price is higher when being measured not only in US Dollars, but also in Euros, Pounds Sterling, Japanese Yen, and every other major currency, then we know the gold demand is higher and it has actually increased in value.


Consequently, if gold is higher in US Dollars while at the same time cheaper in every other currency, then we can conclude that the US Dollar has weakened, and that gold has actually lost value in all other currencies. But the price, because it is being quoted in $USD will be higher and give the illusion of gold becoming more valuable. In such a case the devaluation of gold, due to increased supply on the market, is camouflaged by a weakened US Dollar.

Kenapa Harga Emas Jatuh Pada Januari 2011

Harga emas jatuh pada bulan Januari 2011 kerana jualan oleh sesetengah pelabur emas yang ingin menghabiskan stok yang berisiko dan juga untuk tujuan taktikal. Keadaan tidak stabil di Mesir telah menyebabkan kejatuhan harga emas tidak begitu teruk.


Terdapat pemerhati mengatakan harga mungkin turun sehingga USD 1250. Jika harga ini tidak menjadi pelantar pula, ia mungkin turun sehingga USD 1000. Sama-sama kita tengok.

GOLD PRICE NEWS – The gold price held firm Wednesday morning, trading near unchanged at $1,337 per ounce. After posting its worst month in over a year, the price of gold has stabilized above the $1,330 per ounce level. Following a 6.3% sell-off in the gold price in January, the yellow metal began the month of February with a modest gain yesterday amid continued weakness in the U.S. dollar. The gold price inched higher as the euro currency traded to 1.38 against the U.S. dollar, its highest level since November 11.

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Gold prices were volatile Wednesday, eventually ending lower, as safe haven buyers clashed with investors dumping gold for riskier stocks.

Gold for April delivery closed down $8.20 to $1,332.10 an ounce at the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The gold price today has traded as high as $1,345.60 and as low as $1,327.30. The spot gold price was shedding $7.50, according to Kitco's gold index.