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Gold Price Dives $40, Breaks $1,400
GOLD PRICE NEWS – The gold price dropped precipitously Tuesday morning amid massive selling pressure in global financial markets. The price of gold fell $40.50 to $1,386 per ounce against a backdrop of a plunging stock prices in response to escalating worries over a nuclear meltdown in Japan. The Nikkei 225 fell to its lowest level in nearly 2 years, falling 10.6%. Treasury yields fell as investors pondered the fallout from the spread of radiation in Japan. Gold’s sister precious metal, silver, was off $2.21, or 6%, at $33.71 per ounce heading into the open on Wall Street.Today’s damage in global stock and commodity markets comes as the U.S. Federal Reserve convenes its Federal Open Market Committee meeting. At 2:15pm eastern time, the FOMC is will announce it is holding interest rates unchanged. The wildcard is the policy statement and whether or not the committee offers a more hawkish view in light of the rise in the oil price and budding inflation pressures.
How the disaster in Japan will affect the Fed and whether or not it will mention the crisis is up for debate. It is likely that the Fed will move slower to tighten monetary policy in light of the events in Japan. Notwithstanding today’s steep drop in the gold price, the longer-term outlook remains positive as the Bank of Japan joins other central banks in an aggressive money-printing campaign designed to plug the vacuum in private demand ushered in by the earthquake and its aftershocks.
With the gold price reaching a new all-time high earlier this month, talk of a gold bubble has escalated once again. One of the world’s most prominent gold bulls, Eric Sprott, weighed in his firm’s latest monthly market commentary. In a piece entitled “Debunking the Gold Bubble Myth,” the founder of Sprott Asset Management presented his case on why the gold price has substantially more room to run.
“We’ve seen bubbles before and fully know how they end,” Sprott wrote, “We have no interest whatsoever in participating in some sort of speculative frenzy – that’s a recipe for disaster in the investment business.” He noted that the firm’s “gold investments present no such risk” at this time.
In response to those who point to the stellar performance of the gold price over the past decade as evidence that gold has reached bubble territory, Sprott presented quite the contrary case. “As our analysis has revealed, gold is actually a surprisingly under-owned asset class – and one that has generated far more attention in the media than it probably deserves. While its exemplary performance since 2000 is certainly worthy of discussion, gold simply hasn’t commanded enough investment to warrant the bubble fears it seems to have aroused among market pundits and business commentators. The truth about gold is that most people simply don’t own it…yet.”
He went on to provide a quantitative analysis demonstrating the extent to which gold is under-owned by investors around the world. At just 0.7% of global financial assets – compared to 5% in 1968 and 3% in 1980 – Sprott contended that not only is the public relatively underinvested in gold, but at present gold prices and production capacity it is not even possible to raise global gold holdings “back to a meaningful level.”
To further support his view, Sprott also pointed to the modest valuations in gold stocks that have persisted during the gold bull market. Based on price-to-EBITDA multiples for the AMEX Gold Bugs Index (HUI), Sprott noted that “valuations for gold stocks are currently one-third of the levels reached by the Nasdaq in late 1999. There simply isn’t any evidence of excessive valuations in gold stocks, which is most certainly where we would expect the excesses to be most apparent.”
“Despite all this talk about the gold bubble,” Sprott concluded, “the capital flows into gold vis-à-vis other financial assets have simply not been large enough to indicate any speculative mania.” Instead, investors can be confident that “they are not participating in any speculative bubble by owning gold. They are merely protecting their wealth.”
Gold mining stocks are under heavy selling pressure this morning with the world’s largest gold producers, Barrick Gold (ABX) and Goldcorp (GG), lower by 5.1% and 4.8%, respectively. If Sprott is right about the gold price, then today’s drop is just another bump in gold’s decade-long bull market.
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