Harga Emas Kukuh - Beri Kesan Pada US GDP

Gold Price Firm, 2011 GDP to Disappoint?

GOLD PRICE NEWS – The gold price climbed $4.85 to $1,413.17 Sunday evening as the price of gold continued to march higher.  The gold price added $5.76 to $1,408.32 on Friday to post its fourth consecutive weekly advance.  The rebound in the gold price has taken the yellow metal to within 1% of its $1,432.50 all-time record high from December 7, 2010.

While the gold price has rallied in recent weeks, it has been overshadowed by the impact of social unrest in Africa and the Middle East on the price of oil.  Commenting on the this and other recent market developments was David Rosenberg, Chief Economist & Strategist at Gluskin Sheff.  Rosenberg described the turmoil as a “global recessionary shock” in a Bloomberg interview. 

If oil prices continue to remain elevated, Rosenberg noted that they will “crimp economic growth” because rather than rising as a function of higher demand, black gold is climbing due to supply shocks.  He noted that a $10 move in the price of oil cuts 25-50 basis points off U.S. GDP growth, and contended that “I don’t know how we get 3.5-4.0% GDP growth” this year.

In a note to clients, Rosenberg went on to say that ”The view that the economy will escape relatively unscathed is another pie-in-the-sky view from Wall Street research houses that we heard not just in 2007 but through the first nine months of 2008 when the recession was in full flight. If economic research houses were already assuming say $80 oil for the year, and now we are heading to $100, then right there that subtracts one percentage point off real GDP growth.”

Ulasan : Begitu pentingnya pengaruh nilai emas di dalam menentukan kadar pengukuhan ekonomi di sesebuah negara dapat dilihat pada artikel ini. Seperti yang selalu diperkatakan nilai emas berkadar songsang dengan situasi ekonomi dunia. Dengan kata mudah, makin teruk ekonomi, harga emas semakin meningkat. Sedang setengah pihak duduk termenung kerana kegawatan ekonomi, penyimpan emas duduk tersenyum kerana harga emas semakin naik.